Trends in Head and Neck Cancer Incidence
Data from England(1) and Scotland (2) show clearly the two significant trends within HNC incidence according to tumour site: the increase in oropharyngeal cancer (caused by HPV) to become the most common head and neck cancer; and the decrease in laryngeal cancer (through reduced smoking). English data also shows that oropharyngeal cancer, although mostly caused by HPV, shares a similar geographic pattern of incidence to other head and neck cancers, with a relationship to deprivation. How low laryngeal cancer rates will go remains unknown, as does how this affects numbers of patients undergoing laryngectomy (spoiler alert- so far it hasn’t). Similarly there are too many unknowns and variables to know when we will reach “peak HPV” in terms of oropharyngeal cancers, despite speculation that this may begin to happen in the next decade or so.
- Office for Health Improvement and Disparities. Atlas of health variation in head and neck cancer in England. 2024.
- Clements K, McMahon AD, Bhatti L, Smith C, Paterson C, Douglas CM, et al. Incidence Trends in Head and Neck Cancer Subsites: A National Population-Based Study (2001-2020). Clin Otolaryngol. 2025.